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When Crude Oil meets October and November

Jay Kaeppel
2026-10-14
Crude oil has staged a powerful advance since late February. However, the months of October and November have historically been unkind to crude oil. Should traders be concerned now that the calendar has changed to October? As always, we report the history; you decide.

NOTE: I am away for two weeks. In the interim, I have chosen to republish some older notes. The topics are either relevant again to current market conditions or educational in nature regarding an indicator or system I have found useful in the past.

The note below was first published in September of 2021.


Up until about July of this year, crude oil had been one of the hottest commodities around. As you can see in the chart below (courtesy of Stockcharts.com), after cratering in April 2020, crude has rallied north of $75 a barrel.

When Crude Oil meets October and November

In the chart below, we see that crude oil futures just broke out to a new high in powerful fashion after several months of consolidation.  

When Crude Oil meets October and November

In this scenario, there are two things to remember:

  • The trader's rule-of-thumb is to give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt when price alone gives such a powerful signal
  • At the same time, if price falls from here AND breaks back below recent support, that can be an especially unfavorable signal

So this seems like a good time to invoke:

Jay's Trading Maxim #18: Follow the trend, but DO NOT fall in love with the trend. 

At the

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