TradingEdge Weekly for Aug 14 - JK Seven-Year Cycle, NFP miss 108k, Copper/Gold below 0.16, Gold pattern caution, VIX spike 76% odds, Midterm election drawdowns, Low VIX delayed risk

by Sentimentrader

2026-08-14

Key points:

The JK Seven-Year Cycle has produced a 90% win rate with a 27% average return during Favorable periods since 1920 - the next Favorable period begins at the close on October 30, 2026 and extends through August 14, 2028.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 jobs vs. an 85,000 expected gain - a 108k miss that historically favors gold (+2% over 5 days) and equities (+1% over 5 days); the T+0 reaction was much stronger than average, suggesting the risk-on trend will continue this week though at a reduced magnitude.
When the Copper/Gold Ratio drops below 0.16 for the first time in six months (signal triggered August 5th), copper's 12-month median return has been +43.3% with a 100% win rate; S&P 500 shows 100% 12-month win rate with +18.7% median; Nasdaq 100 median +34.3%; but bonds suffer with TLT at just 17% win rate - the signal is a 'Watch,' not a 'Warning.'
After 107 similar 21-day patterns, gold's median return was negative over the first 1-2 months with win rates at or below 50%; adding the condition of sitting >10% below the 252-day high reinforced short-term pressure; GDX has correlated 98% with gold over the past year with beta above 1, yet its win rates stayed below 40% one to two weeks after similar setups.
When the VIX 21-day rate of change on TDY #153 is ≤+3.3%, the VIX has subsequently risen 35% or more within 51 trading days in 13 of 17 instances (76%); the current reading on August 5th was -2.0%, well below

Sorry, you don't have access to this report

Upgrade your subscription plan to get access

by Sentimentrader

2026-08-14

Key points:

The JK Seven-Year Cycle has produced a 90% win rate with a 27% average return during Favorable periods since 1920 - the next Favorable period begins at the close on October 30, 2026 and extends through August 14, 2028.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 jobs vs. an 85,000 expected gain - a 108k miss that historically favors gold (+2% over 5 days) and equities (+1% over 5 days); the T+0 reaction was much stronger than average, suggesting the risk-on trend will continue this week though at a reduced magnitude.
When the Copper/Gold Ratio drops below 0.16 for the first time in six months (signal triggered August 5th), copper's 12-month median return has been +43.3% with a 100% win rate; S&P 500 shows 100% 12-month win rate with +18.7% median; Nasdaq 100 median +34.3%; but bonds suffer with TLT at just 17% win rate - the signal is a 'Watch,' not a 'Warning.'
After 107 similar 21-day patterns, gold's median return was negative over the first 1-2 months with win rates at or below 50%; adding the condition of sitting >10% below the 252-day high reinforced short-term pressure; GDX has correlated 98% with gold over the past year with beta above 1, yet its win rates stayed below 40% one to two weeks after similar setups.
When the VIX 21-day rate of change on TDY #153 is ≤+3.3%, the VIX has subsequently risen 35% or more within 51 trading days in 13 of 17 instances (76%); the current reading on August 5th was -2.0%, well below

Upgrade your subscription plan to get access