Products
SentimenTrader Trading Tools
‍
Backtest Engine
My Trading Toolkit
Correlation Analysis
Seasonality
Market Prediction
Indicators & Data API
‍
Proprietary Indicators & Charts
Market Data API
Strategies & Scanner
‍
50+ Trading Strategies
Smart Stock Scanner
Smart Option Scanner
Research Reports
‍
Research Solutions
Reports Library
Free Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Education
Sentiment Indicators
Technical Indicators
Pricing
Company
About
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Crude oil and yields signal a bullish scenario for stocks again

by Sentimentrader
2026-06-16
A macro trading model measuring the short-term spread between long-dated Treasuries and crude oil triggered a new bullish signal. After similar alerts of falling oil and yields, the historical outlook for the S&P 500 and growth-oriented sectors looks outstanding.

Key points:

  • Over the last five sessions, crude oil has fallen over 10%, and long-dated Treasuries have risen more than 1%
  • Similar precedents produced outstanding returns and consistency for the S&P 500 regardless of the environment, with 85% of signals positive a year later
  • Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary outperformed all other sectors following similar instances

Crude oil and yields down equal risk-on for stocks, once more

If you're searching for an explanation for the resilience in stocks despite elevated macro uncertainty, the 10% drop in crude oil prices over the past week is the most likely factor. The decline has sparked a chain reaction, causing long-term Treasury prices to rise, which has driven investors to rotate into equities. The combination of lower oil and lower yields presents a favorable situation that history says is worth paying attention to.

To capture this scenario, I applied a 5-day rate of change to the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and the Crude Oil ETF (USO) and then calculated the spread between the two. On Monday, the spread surged above 11.6%, marking the widest reading since April and triggering the same signal that has fired 66 times since 2008.

Sorry, you don't have access to this report

Upgrade your subscription plan to get access
Go to Dasboard
PRODUCTS
SentimenTrader
Trading Tools
Indicators & Data API
‍
Strategies & Scanner
‍
Research Reports
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Education
Sentiment Indicators
‍
Technical Indicators
‍
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
FAQ
‍
Announcements
‍
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
CONTACT
‍
General Inquiries
‍
Media Inquiries
‍
Financial Professionals Inquiries
‍
© 2026 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.